Wednesday, August 18, 2010

No Progress



So, I still have not figured out why my program highly favors really young ages and ignores the turn off and red clump. Obviously the Cross Entropy framework is fine since it worked so well for distance moduli, as you can see the plot of all moduli from the parameters sets versus the corresponding -log likelihood. Yet a lower age always allows a better fit?

I created fake stardata just out of the points from an isochrone, and then it didn't go to zero, but it still undershot. I do not understand what that test might suggest.

Anyway, I believe it is NOT as a result of the membership probability, or the CE framework, the IMF, how I am marginalizing over mass, a mess up in dimensions, how I read in the grid, the few outliers, or how I'm weighing the average of the best points by 1/-log likelihood,

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